News ID: 280522
Published: 0314 GMT February 08, 2021
ANALYSIS

Millions who likely voted for Trump want him barred from future office

Millions who likely voted for Trump want him barred from future office
JIM BOURG/REUTERS

By Harry Enten*

It is common that many politicians grow more popular once they leave office. That has not been the case for former president, Donald Trump.

On the eve of his impeachment trial in front of the Senate, new polling revealed that more Americans want him convicted than at any point during his first impeachment trial a year ago.

More amazingly, more want Trump barred from holding national office ever again than had even an unfavorable rating of any president after one term in office.

A new ABC News-Ipsos poll released on Sunday showed that 56 percent of Americans are in favor of the Senate convicting Trump and barring him from holding federal office in the future. Just 43 percent are opposed to such an action.

This is merely the latest poll to find a clear plurality for such a measure, even after Trump left office. A Monmouth University poll taken at the end of January indicated that 57 percent wanted him barred from holding federal office and 52 percent wanted him convicted by the Senate.

Every single poll over the last month that I could find that meets CNN standards for reporting has shown that at least 56 percent of Americans want him to be barred from holding or seeking (depending on the question) federal office again.

That is, to put it mildly, a stunning percentage. At no point last year in the polling between Trump and now-President Joe Biden did Biden ever earn anywhere close to 56 percent in the national average.

This means that there are likely millions of Americans who voted for Trump last year who now want him barred from holding federal office.

Indeed, while about 80 percent of Republicans (depending on the polling) don't want Trump being kept from running for or holding federal office, this still indicates a clear drop in support from last year. Trump won more than 90 percent of self-identified Republicans in last fall's election.

Overall, this type of opposition to a sitting or former president after one term is historic. No other president after one term in polling history ever had an unfavorable rating or disapproval rating north of 50 percent. On the much harsher being barred from office question, Trump is above that milestone.

When it comes to conviction specifically, there seems to a slightly smaller majority in favor of such an action. An average of 51 percent of Americans in live interview polls taken since January 20 are in favor. A minority of 43 percent oppose this. This eight-point difference has basically stayed the same over the last month.

When the Senate acquitted Trump after his first impeachment trial in 2020, the gap between supporting and opposing impeachment was four points. It never got as high as the eight points it is right now.

For a historical comparison, no other president, except for Richard Nixon, has ever had a majority of Americans say he should be impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate. It was only weeks before Nixon resigned that a clear majority believed he should be impeached and removed from office.

Of course, Trump's not likely to be convicted (or barred from running for federal office) because his support from Republicans, though down, is still north of 80 percent when it comes to the Senate acquitting him. Republicans have 50 seats in the Senate and 67 votes are needed for conviction.

But Trump's likely acquittal should not be mistaken for support among the larger electorate.

The bottom line is Trump remains quite unpopular and a lot of Americans want no part of him.

 

* Harry Enten is a senior writer and analyst for CNN Politics, where he specializes in data-driven journalism, covering politics with a focus on poll numbers and electoral trends.

Source: CNN

 

   
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Resource: CNN
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