News ID: 318951
Published: 0402 GMT December 24, 2021

New deal must focus on U.S. containment

New deal must focus on U.S. containment

Political Desk

One of the most influential issues in multilateral diplomacy is the international arrangement of the great powers, and the same is true of the outcome of the current negotiations.

At the macro-level, the actors can be divided into two groups of Western countries, on one side, and Russia and China, on the other. In the case of Western countries, the question is whether there is a fundamental difference between Europe and the United States and, if so, is it a fundamental and strategic difference, or not? In fact, following the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA and the claim of European countries to maintain this agreement with initiatives such as INSTEX and the blocking statute, the question arose as to whether we are facing a different Europe or a more complex scene in the international arena. Now, with the ongoing Vienna talks and the observation of the behavior of the opposing parties, including European countries, other aspects of the issue have become clear.

At first glance, the nature of Europe and the United States may differ from one another in foreign policy behavior but, in practice, given the entanglements of the two, the separation of European and American goals and interests is unrealistic and misleading.

In this case, the theory of division of labor between good cop and bad cop may come to mind, which is not a convincing answer to the behavior of Europeans, since in some cases their extremism is such that it shifts roles.

Finally, Europe and the United States may try to mislead the other by changing their roles regularly or intermittently, or this behavior may be due to anxiety and confusion. The focus of the West on the margins of the negotiations and the attempt to deviate from the main issue can be a sign of this anxiety and despair, and if this is the case, we should see the intensification of this behavior by the West as it enters the main issues of the negotiations. In fact, this confusion is largely the result of the turmoil caused by Trump’s presidency in the United States, from which the West has not yet been able to free itself.

On the other hand, different situations are taking place. Russia and China have gradually shifted from an economic-political to a political-strategic approach in the wake of the events in the Middle East after the Islamic awakening, as well as the unbridled U.S. policies under Trump, and have strongly proposed multilateralism against U.S. unilateralism. Having experienced and observed U.S. behavior during the Trump era, the two countries now have a double incentive to support Iran’s position in the negotiations, including ensuring that the U.S. does not withdraw from the agreement. In fact, they are well aware that a weak agreement is worse than no deal, and, this time, a new agreement must be sought in a collective effort to “contain America”.

Iran’s behavior in at least the last three cases has been instrumental in stabilizing the above conditions and has paved the way for further restraint by the United States. First, Iran’s real and serious return to the negotiating table, despite the expectations of Western countries. Second, considering the results of the negotiations in the previous rounds by Iran. And third, principled behavior with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and permission to reinstall the cameras at the Karaj site.

The path ahead for the Islamic Republic is even clearer: The revival of the JCPOA depends on the containment of the United States. Now it is the West’s turn to accept the facts and make up for some of the losses of the past.




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