0838 GMT December 03, 2022
Following a three-month hiatus, the new round of nuclear talks between Iran, the EU, and the US was recently resumed in Doha, Qatar. Some analysts have evidently lost hope, either completely or partially, at the prospect of reaching an agreement.
Personally, I find the renewal of talks after three months promising. After all, there must be some kind of dialogue for a solution to present itself.
Both Iran and the US have apparently stood their ground and have not budged. As a result, some have called into question whether both sides have lost their motivations to reach an agreement, but that is unfounded. Iran and the West are still seeking an agreement.
Given Russia's military operation in Ukraine and the global energy crisis, the West and especially the US are even more motivated than before to lift Iran’s sanctions. The price of gasoline has risen to a record high in the US, causing a rate of inflation that Americans had not experienced in decades. The recent critical energy crisis has affected the entirety of Europe, too. The lifting of sanctions can reintroduce at least one to two million barrels of Iranian oil into the global market. So, it seems that the Western side has some motivation to arrive at an agreement but it’s bargaining to give fewer concessions.
If Iran lacked motivation, it would have left the negotiations and the JCPOA by now. What is more, if a deal is made and sanctions are lifted, the economic reforms introduced by President Raeisi’s administration would be implemented more successfully as it generates income for the government. Hence, both sides seem eager to come to terms, but they are in the bargaining phase just to win more concessions from the other side and make fewer concessions themselves. I, for one, believe that they have bargained enough and better move toward solving the issue.
As such, the next round of talks is unlikely to hit another long hiatus because reaching an agreement, which both sides need, cannot be achieved without a dialogue. The Americans have walked the path of war twice in recent years, once in Afghanistan and again in Iraq, and have squandered trillions of dollars, all to no avail. In the end, we saw how they left Afghanistan. Another war will only aggravate the situation. The energy market is already tense. Any signal of an incoming war would further disturb the energy market, primarily hurting the West.
Therefore, what resolves the problems is negotiation and diplomacy, a thousand hours of which is better than an hour of war.