News ID: 325391
Published: 0415 GMT November 15, 2022

West flirts with tricky end-game for Ukraine war

West flirts with tricky end-game for Ukraine war

Diako Hosseini

International affairs expert


Establishment of peace between Russia and Ukraine is a major theme of consultations at the G20 summit, currently underway in Indonesia. But the deliberations at the summit are not likely to lead to peace in Ukraine as the leaders of the main parties to the war are absent in the gathering.

On the other hand, some member states of the G20 have adopted conservative positions towards the war, being reluctant to openly side with either party to the war as they have not reached consensus on the condemnation of Russia for its military operation in Ukraine.

What is required to put an end to the ongoing war in Ukraine, therefore, is the relevant will on the part of Moscow and Kiev to begin with, and then the support of the West, namely Europe and the United States.

For Europe and the U.S., the Ukraine war is a double-edged sword. They won’t complain if the continuation of the war leads to the economic and military erosion of Russia because it will eliminate a threat posed by Russia for a long time to come.

On the other hand, the continuation of the war would lead to the deepening of the economic crisis for Europe and the West, especially in the fields of energy and food. Meanwhile, it will increase Europe's dependence on the United States. It will also cause the U.S. to focus more on Europe and neglect its main international rival, China.

Therefore, the war poses a difficult dilemma, especially since there is a possibility of escalation of the war, with the unfortunate prospect of a nuclear war not being entirely impossible, which threatens the fate of the European continent.

Europe and the U.S. have an end game in mind which could not be construed as a complete victory for Russia. From their vantage point, Russia should not achieve all its goals in Ukraine.

Of course, this does not mean that they intimate the idea of the full destruction and defeat of Russia in the war for they know it is not possible to completely defeat Russia and return to the time before the beginning of the war.

Therefore, they want some kind of compromise whereby the gains of the war would be shared between the two countries.


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